Jakarta — Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that Indonesia’s economic growth will be in the range of 5.5 to 6 percent in the first quarter of 2026 on a year-on-year basis. If achieved, this figure would be significantly higher than the 4.87 percent recorded in the same period the previous year.
“The growth projection for the first quarter of 2026 is around 5.5 to 6 percent, and for the full year 2026—while the State Budget (APBN) projects 5.4 percent—we will push for 6 percent as well,” he said at the “APBN Kita” press conference on Monday (Feb. 23).
Purbaya explained that the robust macroeconomic indicators since the beginning of the year have provided a strong foundation for growth this quarter.
One such indicator is Indonesia’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which has remained in the expansion zone for six consecutive months. In addition, consumer confidence has also increased, with the Consumer Confidence Index recorded at 134.8 points, up from the previous 131.6 points.
According to him, these various indicators show that production activity remains robust as we enter 2026, while the public is becoming increasingly confident about boosting consumption.
“So overall, these various indicators confirm that the foundation of domestic demand remains solid. This provides a strong foundation for the Indonesian economy to continue growing sustainably amid global dynamics,” he explained.
To maximize this momentum, the government is targeting state spending of Rp809 trillion in the first quarter to boost consumer purchasing power.
As part of this spending, the government has allocated Rp62 trillion for the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program. Additionally, the government has set aside Rp55 trillion for the Holiday Allowance (THR) for 10.5 million recipients—including civil servants, members of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), and the Indonesian National Police (Polri)—which is scheduled to be disbursed during the first week of Ramadan.
Furthermore, the government has prepared an economic stimulus package worth Rp15 trillion, including transportation fare discounts and food assistance in the form of 10 kilograms of rice and two liters of cooking oil for 35.04 million beneficiary families.
“I hope this will certainly boost the economy in the first quarter of 2026,” he said.
In addition to fiscal policies and rising consumer optimism, economic growth in the first quarter is also expected to be driven by seasonal factors—namely, the Chinese New Year and Eid al-Fitr celebrations—which historically always boost demand for goods and services.
He added that the momentum from public holidays and collective leave, as well as the “work from anywhere” (WFA) policy, also supported consumer spending in the first quarter of 2026.
“Seasonal factors and the ‘work from anywhere’ (WFA) policy also supported consumer spending in the first quarter of 2026,” he concluded.
